Keep refreshing this page for election night commentary. Check here for my election night junkies guide.

1:36: Last post of the night. Murkowski’s write-in victory will be remarkable if it happens. I would assume the vast, vast majority of the write-ins are for Murkowski. But easily 10% of them could be for others; we’re talking about an odd state with the population of a congressional district. And that could be the difference between write-in and Miller. So the opening of the ballots could be hugely suspenseful.

1:35: I wonder if Reid’s miracle is going to save Titus?

1:05:  It is striking how much FoxNews and MSNBC have drifted ideologically in the last 3 years. Prior to the beginning of the 2008 election cycle, an honest debate could be had as to whether these networks were neutral news organizations or not. But now they are unabashedly partisan organs. And neither one seems the least bit conflicted about it. Not that I am, either. I don’t see terrible problems with openly partisan news sources. It sure beats partisan news sources pretending to be delivering non-editorialized content. Post-mortem thoughts tomorrow.

12:45: Paging Mickey Kaus! The redistricting initiative is up 2-1 in CA right now, with 18% reported. Pot still lags badly behind, 55-45.

12:41: Still two precincts outstanding in VA-11, both in Fairfax County. Connolly by 485 votes right now.

12:30: House Appropriations Committee body count: Dems lose Obey and Kennedy to retirement (2); Mollahan to primary (1); Rodriguez, Murphy, Bishop, Davis, Boyd, and Edwards to defeat (6); with Chandler too close to call. Total count: 9.

12:26: Fox is calling Nevada for Reid. That is a triumph. If they haven’t started already, the establishment GOP recriminations will be coming on strong soon. Delaware, Nevada, and Connecticut were all very plausibly within their grasp, and now all appear to be gone.

12:19: Very much looking forward to Obama’s presser  this afternoon. Boehner’s interviews aside, POTUS really is the first-mover here. I think he will be conciliatory but firm, highlighting the criticizing/governing divide and the GOP challenge to make that transition. Wings thinks he might be combative, but I don’t think he’ll burst out the gate with a “bring it on speech.” You can always get tougher, but once you go that route, it’s hard to back down. So  I assume he starts from the opposite tack. But who knows.

12:00: Ballot measure updates: The name change got crushed in Rhode Island and Providence Plantations. Pot is down 55-45 in California, but only 13% have reported. Abortion restrictions are far behind in CO (70-30) with 30% of the vote in. And the income tax is down 65-35 in WA, it’s not clear how much has been reported.

11:55: CNN calls the Senate for the Dems. I think 7 months ago, if you said “65 House seats and only 7 Senate seats,” you would have been judged nonsensical. But it may very well happen.

11:32: Matt Zeller has lost NY-29. Hamilton Rugby will wait another cycle to become a special interest.

11:28: My noontime predictions are looking decent — I called 64 House seats, 8 Senate, Manchin in WV, Rossi in WA, and Fimian in VA-11. Fimian looks headed for the short side of a recount, but otherwise I look decent.

11:20: It really looks like a bloodbath in the House. Dold is beating Seals in Il-10. This looks like 60+ seats to me.

10:53: Newt Gingrich doesn’t not look well, physically. He seems to have lost a lot of weight. Mike Huckabee does the plain-talk routine as well as anyone. He’s fun to listen to. Counting up the GPO 2012 scene, I’ve seen: Palin, Gings, Huckster, Babour, and Santorum; I have not seen Daniels, Christie, Romney, or Pawlenty.

10:52: Fox says Spratt’s loss is proof of how big the wave is. That’s just plain wrong. The Dems could have kept the House and easily not have saved Spratt.

10:44: The results tonight are all over the map from the polling. Johnson absolutely destroyed Feingold, outpacing the polling by double-digits. In many other Senate races, Dems seem to be  over-performing. It’s too early to draw conclusions about systematic errors in the polling, but geez, it sure looks like there are a lot of idiosyncratic trends that defy a hypothesis of underlying national structural errors.

10:20: It’s pizza time. Back on the blogging in 30 minutes.

10:19: Is it the best kept secret in DC that sinking the health care bill will come via not appropriating for it? I just heard three different commentators talk about how repeal is a dead letter in the Senate. You think?

10:17: I just noticed that CNN is advertising it’s show as “Election Night in America.” No word on whether Faith Hill will be singing the intro to the second half. And where’s Costas?

10:03: How did Eliot Spitzer survive his scandals? Seriously.

10:02: I’ve spotted David Gergen! He’s 2nd of 11 sitting around two tables in CNN’s war room.

10:01: Nevada is closed and looks from the exit polls to be a dead heat. It’s hard to overestimate the consequences of a change in majority leader in the Senate, where the ML’s style is so consequential to the politics. Reid is/was a relatively quiet leader. It’s interesting to think about the current Senate under a more vocal, public leader.

9:53: The big story right now the divergence of House and Senate. The GOP has made gains toward a big night in the House, winning a lot of key stuff in the 55+ seat gain marginals. On the other hand, the GOP Senate candidates appear to be struggling: Toomey, Kirk, and Buck all trail significantly with about 1/3 of the vote in.

9:50: Connolly leads Fimian in VA-11 by less than 100 votes with 86.9% reported. A long night in NoVA.

9:47: Rand Paul is talking in Buzzwords. Unsustainable Debt. Fiscal Insanity. Budgetary Rules. BBA. “There are no rich. There are no poor.” Heads just exploded at the DNC.

9:42: Wings wants to get a softball and knock over the digital milk bottles that are being stacked in front of the CNN commentators. Wolf says he “loves the new technology.” Wow.

9:36: O’Donnell just said, “We were victorious.” Wings wonders why she did’t wear the halloween costume. Somewhere, Mike Castle is livid.

9:30: Watching Rubio. Wings, SJC, and I all declare him the new face of the young GOP, just before Wolf does. The Democrats are likely scared to death of this guy. And well they should be. UPDATE: very religious Rubio speech.

9:26: Wings declares CNN’s setup the “Tron Board.” Why are things listed by “Class” above? On what planet does that make sense?

9:23: LD asks if calling the House so early will depress western turnout. I doubt it. Too many important Senate/Gov/ballot initiatives.

9:20: CNN is rocking what I call the “Max Headroom” screen right now. Whatever the effect of this giant 3-D board is supposed to be, it ends up making the persons head vibrate slightly. It’s 1985 and we’re watching HBO. With Wolf Blitzer.

9:06: Rand Paul victory speech not inspiring. We’re looking at the precinct breakdowns for Fimian/Connely right now. Boy is that tight! Wings acutely observes that PWC goes Fimian and ‘ol Fairfax is Connely-country. Both have reported about the same.

8:57: Just took my perusal of the TV networks to settle on a station. I like Fox’s HD setup, and they only have 4 or 5 (!) people in the studio. CNN has a murder’s row of a half dozen bags of hot air: Begala, Carville, Bennett batting 2,3,4 in that lineup. MSNBC is running out a Matthew/Olberman booth, flanked by a bunch of unknowns.

8:49: Most reassuring sign for Dems: Manchin seems to have won easily in WV. Most ominous: it looks like Boucher is going down in VA-9.

8:48: …AAAANNNNDDDD, we’re live! We’re coming to you tonight from my family room, where I’m sitting here with two laptops, a pile of research, and enough junk food to kill a small horse. With me are SJC, who is currently doing some baby-blogging, and Wings, who is not only a commercial airline pilot, but also is wearing an NRA cap. Yikes! The kids are asleep and we’re ready to dig into this. Let’s do it!