Monthly Archives: November 2010

On Career Paths

An old joke around the south side of the Capitol involves a Representative winning election to the Senate (and thus moving northward). It varies in its telling, but the punch line is always  and now the average IQ of both chambers has increased.  It’s a joke that can be retold often: historically, about 30-40% of Senators in any given Congress had previously served in the House… Continue reading

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On the consequences of landslides

How will the 2010 midterm election affect the ideology of the House Democrats? Without speculating or considering how it might have changed the ideologies of individual returning members, it probably is safe to say it will have a moderately large aggregate effect simply via replacement. As many commentators have pointed out  (for example here and here), the Democratic losses in the election were skewed toward the more conservative wing of the party’s House membership. After the jump, I use some rough-cut empirical data to shed further light on this point. Continue reading

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Election Night Live-Occasional-Blog

Keep refreshing this page for election night commentary. Check here for my election night junkies guide.

1:36: Last post of the night. Murkowski’s write-in victory will be remarkable if it happens. I would assume the vast, vast majority of the write-ins are for Murkowski. But easily 10% of them could be for others; we’re talking about an odd state with the population of a congressional district. And that could be the difference between write-in and Miller. So the opening of the ballots could be hugely suspenseful.

1:35: I wonder if Reid’s miracle is going to save Titus?

1:05:  It is striking how much FoxNews and MSNBC have drifted ideologically in the last 3 years. Prior to the beginning of the 2008 election cycle, an honest debate could be had as to whether these networks were neutral news organizations or not. But now they are unabashedly partisan organs. And neither one seems the least bit conflicted about it. Not that I am, either. I don’t see terrible problems with openly partisan news sources. It sure beats partisan news sources pretending to be delivering non-editorialized content. Post-mortem thoughts tomorrow.

12:45: Paging Mickey Kaus! The redistricting initiative is up 2-1 in CA right now, with 18% reported. Pot still lags badly behind, 55-45.

12:41: Still two precincts outstanding in VA-11, both in Fairfax County. Connolly by 485 votes right now.

12:30: House Appropriations Committee body count: Dems lose Obey and Kennedy to retirement (2); Mollahan to primary (1); Rodriguez, Murphy, Bishop, Davis, Boyd, and Edwards to defeat (6); with Chandler too close to call. Total count: 9.

12:26: Fox is calling Nevada for Reid. That is a triumph. If they haven’t started already, the establishment GOP recriminations will be coming on strong soon. Delaware, Nevada, and Connecticut were all very plausibly within their grasp, and now all appear to be gone.

12:19: Very much looking forward to Obama’s presser  this afternoon. Boehner’s interviews aside, POTUS really is the first-mover here. I think he will be conciliatory but firm, highlighting the criticizing/governing divide and the GOP challenge to make that transition. Wings thinks he might be combative, but I don’t think he’ll burst out the gate with a “bring it on speech.” You can always get tougher, but once you go that route, it’s hard to back down. So  I assume he starts from the opposite tack. But who knows.

12:00: Ballot measure updates: The name change got crushed in Rhode Island and Providence Plantations. Pot is down 55-45 in California, but only 13% have reported. Abortion restrictions are far behind in CO (70-30) with 30% of the vote in. And the income tax is down 65-35 in WA, it’s not clear how much has been reported.

11:55: CNN calls the Senate for the Dems. I think 7 months ago, if you said “65 House seats and only 7 Senate seats,” you would have been judged nonsensical. But it may very well happen.

11:32: Matt Zeller has lost NY-29. Hamilton Rugby will wait another cycle to become a special interest. Continue reading

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